Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Survivor Tocantins: Midseason review

We're just over halfway through Survivor: Tocantins, and have now seen the season's two dominant storylines -- the Exile Alliance and, well, Coach's persona -- come to loggerheads, with the latter thread snipping off the former (or, as Coach would say, slaying the dragon).

It's interesting, but only a coincidence, that this is the second straight Survivor where an early-game alliance has been a top topic of the editing but has failed to remain intact much past the merge. Last time, the "Onion Alliance" of Marcus, Charlie, Corinne and Randy/Bob was diced with the ousters of its leader, Marcus, and then Charlie (although Bob went on a remarkable run of immunity and good fortune to win the game).

This time, the cross-tribal Exile Alliance -- Brendan, Taj, Sierra and Stephen -- seemingly had the upper strategic hand, only to fall apart at the merge, due in part to Brendan failing to give Taj and Stephen enough of a reinforcement that his intended to maintain their pledge. In short, they just didn't trust him. So while the Onion Alliance fell apart due to external forces -- Marcus being unable to keep Crystal and Susie from voting for him just before the merge -- the Exile pact failed thanks to internal forces.

Although Coach is clearly the season's "main character," strategically he is a sideshow. He thinks he is in charge, but he's almost certainly not. In this way, Coach's storyline is shades of Roger in Amazon, who wasn't the main character but was an arrogant, perhaps misogynistic soul who thought he controlled the game (a lot of people thought they controlled that game -- Roger, Deena, Alex, Christy -- but the only one who really did was Rob, at least until the Final Four, when Jenna took over).

Coach's personality is taking center stage, but despite his "dragon slayer" protestations to the contrary, it doesn't seem his game is. And the last time we had a character THIS larger than life, sucking in THIS much airtime, would be Rupert on Pearl Islands, I'd think. (Sure, Randy last year was larger than life, over the top -- but he wasn't the season's "main character," if Gabon indeed had just one). And we all remember what happened to Rupert.

The people in charge, rather, are pretty clearly J.T. and Stephen. This doesn't mean either will win, but they are the deciders, if you will, right now. Stephen, part of the Exile Alliance, chose to vote against it (along with Taj), in part thanks to Brendan's lack of attention to him and Taj. If J.T. and Stephen had chosen to side with Brendan, surely they could have pulled Taj along with them, and Coach would be gone. But Brendan was the bigger threat, both in challenges and to win, since everyone on the show seems to think Coach is nuts, and so it was he who had to go. Brendan also suggested last week that he was dumped because he had the hidden immunity idol.

If Coach is the dominant character, the least defined person left is certainly Debra. It seems every season, except the first -- when, as someone on SurvivorSucks.com recently pointed out, there was more time for character development because only Richard and Sue were strategizing for almost the entire game -- there's at least one "blank slate" who lasts most of the way without us ever knowing much about them. Think of Nick and Amber in Australia, Darrah in Pearl Islands, Becky in Cook Islands -- oddly I think they are female more often than not. Does this mean there's pretty much no way Debra wins? I'd say so. Then again, Bob wasn't exactly a dominant character last season until the very end.

The initial preview for this week's episode sure made clear that Sierra was a sitting duck. We see her crying as Tyson tells her she's the next to go. Some fans online assume this means she's safe and may even win immunity. This is frankly the natural reaction to such a preview, because on Survivor, usually the opposite of what the editors want you to think happens, ends up happening -- this is a central part of the "repetition, denial and audience (dis)pleasure" that forms the repression that is the backbone of the program, and it's as true now as it was on Borneo.

Sometimes, though, the editors pull a fast one and what is telegraphed the entire episode indeed ends up happening. (The best example of this is actually Roger's boot from Amazon, where the rest of the contestants spent the entire episode talking about how delicious it is going to be to blindside him -- and indeed that's what happens.)

So, if Thursday night's episode is dominated by talk of Sierra being the next to go, that probably means she'll be safe -- but it's not a sure thing. As for who will win, it seems EVERYONE loves J.T., making him the obvious "most likely to succeed" candidate at the moment -- but a few episodes ago, I'd have called Brendan the most likely winner. Things change quickly on this show. But with eight people left...

Most likely to win: J.T., Stephen (the current power pair, with both getting positive depictions)

Least likely to win: Coach (too over the top a depiction, with some craziness to boot), Debra (too invisible)

Friday, February 20, 2009

Survivor Tocantins: Money Trouble for Taj and Brendan?

This season of Survivor features two contestants wealthy enough to have little need for the show's million-dollar prize. With other players armed with this knowledge, will the pair's bank accounts be their downfall? If the show's history is any guide, probably not.

This week on Survivor: Tocantins, Taj outed herself as the wife of former NFL player Eddie George (she also used to be in the pop group SWV). Another contestant, Brendan, is wildly well-to-do, having cofounded and later sold Bear Naked granola. Brendan, who like Taj was recruited for the show, briefly (and inexplicably) posted his audition video to YouTube just before being cast last year...and at least one other contestant noticed, or at least recognized him before the game began.

Coincidentally, it was Brendan and Taj who ventured to Exile Island in Episode 2 and bonded over the experience. The teasers for next week's show hint that they may even form an alliance. That aside, will their finances alone (assuming Brendan's becomes widely known or suspected among other players at some point) hurt them? After all, following Taj's admission, J.T. noted that he needed the million far more than she must. And in a game where contestants might grasp at any reason to get rid of someone other than themselves, you'd think Brendan and Taj would be at risk.


The Life of Brian Revisited

But maybe not -- because we've seen this before. Way back in 2002, the financial status of Survivor: Thailand contestant Brian Heidik was glaringly revealed to his fellow contestants. As I wrote in Tribal Warfare:

In an episode midway through the season, the contestants viewed videotapes from home, and in Brian's, we watched as his wife wandered through their impressive abode, which housed a white grand piano, and then showed off the family's two expensive automobiles. As this insertion of the "real" world into the manufactured world of Survivor reverberated, Brian frothed, fearing the revelation would undercut his plans -- would his tribemates vote him out, feeling he didn't need the million-dollar prize?

It turned out that Brian had little to worry about: He wound up winning, 4-3, even after his opponent in the final two, Clay, argued (if memory serves) that he could better use the money due to a troubled restaurant business.

In a 2005-ish interview, Helen Glover, another contestant from that season, told me that the video "was a BIG deal to me, but to me alone" and that wealth was a bigger issue for her than personality, but that "didn't matter" to the other contestants. Glover noted that near the end of the game, Clay talked some about Brian having money already, but "by then it was too late to change things up."

I conducted an extensive survey with Tribal Warfare that asked the 1,000-plus respondents what affect Brian's video had on their opinion of him. 62 percent said it had none, and just a third said it made them want him to win the game less. So if anything, most viewers might have sided with Glover's tribemates, not her.


Gary's Game

Another apparently well-to-do contestant would be Gary Hogeboom from Guatemala. The former NFL quarterback did his best to shield his identity out of fear of being voted out. He went by the last name "Hawkins" and said he was a landscaper, his current job. But the season's eventual winner, Danni Boatwright, recognized him and many in his tribe suspected the truth, though they couldn't know for sure.

Did his potential wealth affect Gary's standing in the game? Not according to one of his former tribemates, Brian Corridan. "His identity didn't matter to us for a few reason," Corridan told me. For one thing, his strength was important, especially early on in a tribe with few buff players. "Even if he was a billionaire, it would have been hard for us to vote him out that early without running the very real risk of having to face many more Tribal Councils before the merge."

Gary, Corridan noted, had also befriended several players on their tribe, and those teammates would have needed a very good reason to vote him out early on. The bottom line, explained Corridan: "Had he been on a stronger tribe or had he revealed his wealth earlier on or with more arrogance about him, it might have been a different story. But with his usefulness around camp and in challenges, and with his tight bonds with several teammates, he wasn't going anywhere." And Gary didn't for awhile, placing seventh that season, with an assist from Survivor's first hidden immunity idol.


It's the Stupid Economy

Precedent, then, would suggest that fat wallets don't hurt, assuming players don't flaunt it. But a couple of things are different this time. First, in Taj's case at least, the other contestants have found out about her very early on, while impressions and alliances are still setting. With Gary, they never knew for sure, and Thailand Brian's financial status was revealed well into the proceedings. But if Taj's tribe heads to Tribal again soon, they might see her tax bracket as an easy reason to let her go, although in interviews she's said that she is going on the show to earn money for her charitable foundation.

On a more subliminal level, could outside conditions -- namely the economy -- affect the game, which filmed last fall as Wall Street began its nose-dive? Would a "Player X is already rich" argument carry more weight in these conditions?

Don't get me wrong: I can't quite imagine someone deciding to vote out Brendan specifically because the economy is in the tank. However, assuming the nation's financial situation was clear enough when filming began (and perhaps reinforced at the inevitable family visit late in the season), such thoughts could lurk beneath the surface when it comes to players' strategies. In his interview with Reality Blurred, Ben/Coach, who knows about Brendan's wealth, hinted he'd use it against him in some way if he had to.

If anything, it might be more of a factor as the game draws to a close. In fact, if I were on the show, I might want to sit next to a millionaire (or two) at the final Tribal Council. It may not have worked for Clay against Brian, but "the other guy doesn't need the money" can't hurt as an argument, especially these days, right?

Monday, December 15, 2008

Survivor Gabon Finale: Bobbing for Eden's Apples

Survivor's 17th season is in the books. Some thoughts:

Although his opening speech wasn't bad, I otherwise was unimpressed with Bob's final Tribal Council performance. He seemingly had little to say and, far as we were shown, avoided giving the one answer that could have swung at least one more vote his way: That he did what he had to do. Why give Randy the fake idol? It kept him in the game. Why do everything Sugar told him to? It kept him in the game. When your alliance has fallen apart, pretty much all you can do is hitch a ride with anyone who's willing. And do what keeps you in the game.

As a result, Bob nearly lost to Susie, whose only real strategic move that we saw was siding with Crystal and Kenny to vote out Marcus before the merge. Granted, this decision spelled the end for the Onion Alliance's dominance. But Susie didn't engineer that move -- Crystal (and Kenny) convinced her to do it. Other than that, what did Susie do? Win the first and last individual immunity challenges. That's all.

So it's hard to say Susie deserved three votes, much less the money. Bob was more deserving than she was. Yes, I know he slept through some of the Onion alliance's strategy sessions. He was on the margins of the Onion alliance -- at one point, Corinne and company said they had secretly replaced him with Randy as their fifth wheel -- but managed to outlast the rest of them. Perhaps he was riding Sugar's coattails in the last few episodes, but he wasn't lacking for strategy since he initially planned to use his fake idol to try and save himself. His and Corinne's plan to get rid of Matty at the final seven -- by using a second fake idol to fake out Kenny and Crystal -- also came closer to working than it probably should have. And when it came down to it, the 57-year-old (by far Survivor's oldest winner) won immunity not once, not twice, but three times.

Yet based on what we were shown during the season, Sugar, perhaps even more than Kenny, was the key strategist. Kenny convinced her to vote out Ace (something Sugar came to regret). She was the swing vote again later when Charlie was dispatched. She got Bob to sell Randy on the hidden immunity idol plan. She engineered the ouster of Crystal (her supposed alliance partner) even giving Matty her cherished idol, then vanquished Kenny after convincing him he was safe. And most shocking of all, she forced a tie at the final four to let "fate" decide if Bob or Matty should go to the final three. (Apparently fate decided Bob should first practice starting a fire.)

In a nutshell: Sugar (and her vote) determined the course of the game. She was Gabon's central character. Back when Survivor had a final two, not a final three, fans often noted that the most deserving player -- be it Kathy from Marquesas or Rob from The Amazon -- often finished third. Weird as Sugar's decision-making was at times, methinks that may have been the case here, too. Bob wasn't an undeserving winner -- I was rooting for him myself in the end -- but Sugar made more things happen.

However, Sugar angered too many others, and lost in part because the jury voted with their hearts. Which is only appropriate given that Sugar's heart often determined her strategy.

Take all this with a grain of salt, though, because such reactions are based on the editing. And this season's editing was odd:

• Sugar was edited as an emotional, sweet and likeable young woman -- remember the sequence in that early episode where she mourned her father at Exile Island, then found the hidden immunity idol? But apparently no one really liked her.

• Early on, there seemed to be flashing neon signs around Marcus indicating he was the obvious winner. Ooops! Indeed, Marcus and Ace were the focal points of the pre-merge episodes. But neither lived to see the merge. That's what happens with power swings, I guess.

• Susie suddenly in the last hour became "too talkative." I think this personality trait might have been mentioned earlier, but I am not sure and in any case it seemed strange for the editors to suddenly spend precious finale minutes on Susie being annoyingly talkative and repeatedly saying "Oh, I can't believe I won immunity" when surely she must have been talkative the entire 39 days. I could see it if she *hadn't* won immunity and the editors wanted to show why players might vote her out, but given that she did win...

• Randy, whom no one outside his alliance apparently liked, received laughs and cheers from the audience at the Reunion Show on Sunday. Corinne, whom no out outside her alliance apparently liked, was roundly booed. Yet Randy surely had a more negative edit than Corinne on the show (Corinne even complained to Jeff Probst that she wasn't depicted as mean enough). What happened here? Corinne was portrayed as at least mildly friendly early on in the season, then became outright angry once her alliance was decimated. The topper, of course, was her singularly nasty comment to Sugar at the Final Tribal Council about Sugar's dead father. That, more than anything, earned Corinne those boos. Randy, meanwhile, was edited as mean all along. But it was a different kind of mean. It was an over-the-top, comical kind of mean. The fact that in his "boot episode," Randy purposely cranked up the nasty-meter, led to an impression that perhaps he was playing up his bad manners all along. In any case, this subtle difference between Corinne's and Randy's edits is, I think, responsible to some degree for the reaction both got Sunday night.

• Finally, Bob. Where was he in the early part of the game? Sleeping, apparently. We heard from him some in the opening episode, and he had the first pick for the dominant Kota Tribe, which he headed as the oldest male. But then he dropped off the radar. Granted, the editors can only work with what they've got. Clearly Bob's a quiet guy -- witness his silence Sunday night after winning an additional $100,000 in a separate contest based on viewer's votes for their favorite player.

But in terms of the season's narrative, Bob came back in a big way in Randy's boot episode. He gained audience empathy for his bad situation and approval for his genius recreation of an immunity idol. We even got a breathtaking aerial shot of him gazing down from a small mountain while on Exile Island. We've seen this sort of helicopter-shot footage at least twice before: The eventual final four of Africa -- Ethan, Kim, Lex and Tom -- climbed a mountain early in that season to take in the scenery, complete with purdy music and breathtaken commentary. The winner of Survivor Fiji, Earl, had a similar shot as well early in his victorious season. Given these two previous instances, I remember at the time thinking, gosh, that's a "winner's shot," but then dismissed it because how in the world could Bob possibly win?

Oh well.

That's all for now...more later this week, perhaps, with final thoughts on the season.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Survivor Gabon: These Tangled Webs

After seventeen seasons, this show still can sure throw wild curveballs at its audience. Last night's unending machinations, confusing yet amusing "deal" between Kenny and Bob, alliance-jumping by Sugar, and swiftly shifting Tribal Council targets made for one of the more delicious and unpredictable episodes this season. Matty's doomed! No, wait, it's Bob! Er, Crystal?! I mean look at the shifts that occurred this episode:

• Kenny and Crystal go from trying to oust Matty, to tricking Bob into giving up his idol, and then back to trying to oust Matty

• Sugar goes from an alliance with Kenny and Crystal to one with Matty and, presumably, Bob and even Susie

• Bob goes from semi-aligning with Kenny and Crystal to semi-aligning with Sugar (and by extention Matty).

And on top of that, we have an immunity idol changing hands at Tribal Council -- but from Sugar to Matty, not from Bob to Kenny.

If Sugar (in her current state of mind -- remember, she's switched allegiances gosh who knows how many times, and seems to be playing based on her heart, not her head) has her way, we'll have a final three of her, Bob and Matty -- the "good guys." What a Hollywood ending, an alternate version of the one I tried to flesh out a few weeks back. But there's no telling how this plays out. Immunities and perceived jury votes will have a big say at the next two Tribal Councils.

That said, here's how I'd rate each remaining contestant's chances of winning should they make the final three. Note that there are no outright spoilers below, but there is speculation based on things that Marcus and company have said in recent interviews:

1. Bob. He's in the catbird's seat if he gets to the end. He'd have the votes of Marcus, Charlie and Corinne almost for sure, and that may be enough to win -- if not, he'd only need one more vote for an outright majority. That could come from Randy, who still might be mad at him -- but Randy has to vote for somebody, right?

2. Matty. Tough call between him and Ken for this spot. Ken has played a better game in terms of running the show and cooking up several ousters, even if it seems he did them on the spur of the moment and used lies to get them to happen (like telling everyone Charlie was the mastermind behind the Onion alliance). If the four Onion jury members (based on "Ponderosa" footage online) are still mad enough at Crystal to not even talk to her after she's voted out, that anger may rub off on her main man, Kenny, even if Corinne said last week after being voted out that she liked him. So I'd say Matty, although having less of a role in the strategic part of the game, also did less to offend most jury members than did Kenny.

3. Ken. See above. A final three including Matty, Ken, and one of the two remaining ladies would be quite the tossup.

4. Susie. It's another tough call between Susie and Sugar. Like with Matty and Kenny, I'm going to say that the person who's done less to offend the jury will get more votes this season. Between Susie and Sugar, that's Susie. The editing suggests she's done little lately other than flip on Marcus at that pivotal pre-merge Tribal Council. She'd be the least defined winner ever if she somehow came out on top.

5. Sugar. She's determined as many oustings as Kenny, and like him, she's led with her heart more than her head (or so it seems). She's been portrayed as a sweetheart, but post-boot interviews with jury members suggests few actually liked her on the set -- that she acted like a diva. She also helped off Charlie, and with Randy and Corinne also not being able to stand her, and her having just betrayed Crystal, it's hard to see how she wins.

So, how will this play out? Sugar and Susie will probably both reach the final three, simply because neither can likely win. And the man who joins them -- your guess is as good as mine as to who that will be -- will beat them for the million.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Survivor Gabon: Bob's Idol and the Endgame

Now and then, Survivor serves up a classic episode. Last night's was certainly one of those: Bob offers Randy -- who has been angering others with ridiculous behavior -- a realistic-looking but fake hidden immunity idol. Randy plays it at Tribal Council and is embarrassed (and voted out) when Jeff Probst announces it is fake.

I've seen comments at SurvivorSucks wondering why Bob would embarrass Randy like this, seeing how it would cost him Randy's vote if Bob reached the final three -- as well as, most likely, the votes of Marcus and Charlie. Add Corinne's vote to that, assuming she's voted out soon, and there's a majority of the jury, right there. Therefore, Bob's actions may have well cost him the million bucks, should he somehow reach the final Tribal Council. The only way he could win is if the other three jury members all vote for him and Marcus, Charlie, Randy and Corrine split their votes 2-2 for the other two finalists.

But this was a case of short-term gain outweighing long-term pain: Better to finish third than seventh. Giving Randy his fake idol, and lying to Corinne about it too, doubtlessly won Bob major brownie points among the current powers. What did he have to lose? Heck, Bob was Matty's initial target this episode until Randy started acting over-the-top mean. Unless Corinne wins immunity next episode, he's almost certainly done enough to ensure he outlasts her in the game. And if Sugar tires of Ken's strategic dominance or wants him ousted, she's now obtained another ally.

The editing last night was an interesting mix. Besides Randy, who was outlandishly negative (purposely so), Corinne was somehow more sympathetic, and Sugar, who's had a mostly positive edit thus far was either hilariously brilliant or unnecessarily mean when it came to the "cookie argument" and her plan to trick Randy. Is she a hero or villain? In interviews, Charlie and Randy have both expressed distaste for Sugar. There's no way to tell for sure if that's how others in the game felt or a byproduct of her messing with their plan.

The preview for the next new episode was especially fascinating: It showed Bob explaining to a perturbed-looking Corinne that Marcus had in fact held onto the immunity idol hidden on the beach at the "fake merge" feast that he had ostensibly thrown into the ocean. "He told me where he hid it," Bob said (or something to that effect). There's some confusion as to what this portends. But I think he'll try to say a member of the Fang alliance left the fake idol on Exile Island for him to find after someone else found the real one. (This also explains why he voted for Susie instead of for Randy.) In which case, perhaps he makes a second fake idol and hides that one for Corinne to find, saying it's the one Marcus got at the fake merge. Beyond embarrassing Corinne to get more brownie points from Sugar, the only upside I can think of for Bob in doing this is that Corinne might not try as hard to win the immunity challenge if she already thinks she has an idol. But would she really fall for that? It seems unlikely. And admittedly this is a convoluted idea!



I'd say there's two ways this game can play out from here -- an "Occam's Razor" way and a "Hollywood" way. Occam's Razor is the well-known principal that all things being equal, the simplest solution is the best. In other words, the most realistic finish. The one that Survivor's editors will try to convince us isn't going to play out, but in fact does. Think of the many famous misdirections for the show's premiere season, when Mark Burnett and friends did all they could to convince viewers that the simplest resolution -- the Tagi alliance systematically eliminating hapless Pagong -- wouldn't happen. Of course, it did.

The "Occam's Razor" finish would look something like this (again, pure speculation, I'm not spoiled)

Final Seven boot: Corinne. This seems inevitable at this point, unless she wins immunity.
Final Six boot: Bob. Sure, he entertained the game's new elite, but he's still on the outs. Could go next if Corinne wins immunity.
Final Five boot: Matty. Things are pretty cloudy starting here. Various videos online, and footage from the show, indicates all sorts of different final three alliances. But Crystal, Kenny and Sugar all seemed irked by Matty trying to push the tribe to vote out Bob last night. And he'd be the biggest Immunity threat left by that point.
• That leaves a final four of Sugar, Kenny, Crystal and Susie, and with the final immunity challenge and such a small (and even number of players) leaving open the chance of a Tribal Council tie, there's little to speculate about by then.


Now, the "Hollywood ending," or a sequence of events that is both rational and, for the audience, pleasurable. This involves an uprising against the powers that be and a "good" person winning in the end. It also has to make some sense -- for instance, it'd be absurd to suggest that Corinne will suddenly ally with Susie and Kenny to oust Crystal.

So, here's the most realistic "Hollywood" finish I can come up with:

Final Seven boot: Still Corinne. Sorry, I just think it's gonna happen barring an immunity win. She is too closely tied to Randy. And I'm sure she'll (understandably) freak out after this latest Tribal Council.
Final Six boot: Kenny. Sugar rewards Bob by helping to keep him around. She either pulls in Matty and then gives Bob her immunity idol, forcing a 3-3 tie that sends Kenny home when Bob's votes are thrown out. Or, more likely, she gets Susie and Matty to align with her and Bob and votes out Kenny. The victim here could as easily be Crystal, but ousting Kenny would be more shocking (to Kenny) and pleasurable (to the audience) since he's ostensibly in charge of things and may be on the verge of getting cocky.
Final Five boot: Crystal. Easily dispatched after Kenny's downfall, unless she wins immunity.
• That leaves a final four of Sugar, Bob, Matty and Susie. Whichever one of Bob or Matty doesn't win immunity at that point would probably be a goner. If Sugar or Susie wins immunity, Bob may have a better chance of surviving by arguing that he can't win after having alienated four members of the seven-person jury.

So there you have it. It looks like the Thanksgiving night installment is a "recap episode," so it'll be a while before we see how this all wraps up.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Belated Survivor Analysis: Chopped Onion

Well, Survivor editors, you got me. It sure looked like Marcus, Charlie and Corinne had this thing wrapped up. Oh, but for an ill-timed second tribal swap!

(Oh, and apologies to my eight readers for not posting about Survivor in so long...an election and multiple colds can do that to you...)

The pivotal moment of the last three episodes certainly was Marcus’ conversation with Crystal by the water after the second tribal reshuffling. Where Marcus went wrong, as Dalton Ross pointed out, was in telling Crystal he needed to vote against her buddy Kenny.

Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but the better move -- especially since he had a small personal connection with Crystal as a close friend of her cousin -- may have been to propose what Rob Cesternino did in The Amazon when faced with a wavering alliance member: Unite with the opposition and off the waffler.

Ah yes. Eleven seasons ago, six players were left in the jungle. We had…

• Rob, Butch and Matt on one side

• Heidi and eventual winner Jenna on the other

• And Christy in the middle.

Nominally, Christy was allied with Rob’s group (well, mainly Butch). And Rob needed her to break a Tribal Council tie. Meanwhile Jenna and Heidi were also wooing her. But Christy frustrated both sides by refusing to say who she’d vote for, declaring, “I’ve got the power!”

The result: A desperate Rob proposed to Jenna that they “make it easy on everyone” and get rid of Christy. Which they did.

Now, this wasn’t the same situation Marcus faced. Back in 2002, the best Jenna could have hoped for was a 3-3 tieif Christy voted with her and Heidi. But in Gabon, Crystal was part of a tribe of five people: her and Kenny on one side, Marcus and Bob on the other, with Susie in the middle, albeit nominally part of Marcus’s alliance.

What if Marcus, seeing Crystal recoil at offing Kenny, had offered to get rid of Susie instead? “Neither of us can trust her, so why go through all this drama?” he could have said. “Chances are this will be the last Tribal Council we’ll have to go to before the merge anyway -- and if there’s another one, well then we have a 2-2 deadlock and we’ll see what happens. But for now, there’s a 100% chance Kenny won’t be going home, vs. a 50-50 chance if we both went after Susie for her vote.”

The bad news: It’d have been risky. Crystal could have tattled to Susie (but then, Marcus could have just denied everything). The good news: If it paid off, Marcus’ alliance would still have a 5-4 advantage overall, with the one questionable member excised.

But again, hindsight is 20/20.

***

The question now – after the delicious booting of Ace shocking dispatching of Marcus and the inevitable Charlie ouster that followed (although Kenny sure picked on him for petty reasons) – is if Kenny and Crystal can keep this up. In particular, Kenny’s whole game the last few episodes has entailed lying about the people he wants gone. He lied to Sugar about Ace, and she bought it and voted him out. He lied to his alliance (and Sugar) about Charlie, and they bought it and voted him out (geez, why lie when you don’t have to – everyone hates Randy, go for the easy kill)! Will this catch up to him?

I’m not even sure if we’re supposed to root for or against this Kenny guy. For all Marcus’ purported arrogance, he sure was depicted pleasantly enough. His ego only flashed now and then. He was no John from Marquesas and that ill-fated alliance. Charlie was quiet but had a largely positive edit, and Bob thus far has too. Corinne and especially Randy, not so much, but that’s three Onions out of five that have been edited from neutral to positive. Kenny, meanwhile, described himself as a rodent, had trouble steering a boat, and outwardly lies to get his way. But he nonetheless does so in a charming way and has a somehow endearing nerdish quality.

I hesitate to predict anything given how I fell for the Onion inevitability (though I sure wasn’t the only one, and gosh, former champs Earl, Yul, and Tom sure seemed like the obvious winners from almost the start of their respective seasons, and arguably even Todd), but the previews for the next episode suggest that Randy and Corinne will try to get Matty to switch sides by telling him that Crystal/Kenny/Susie are the core alliance, and he and Sugar are on the outs.

Don’t bet on this working – yet. There’s still eight people left. A Crystal/Kenny/Susie tandem can’t call the shots until the final six (well five, but six, counting forcing a tie). And Sugar detests both Randy and Corinne. So I’d guess one of those two leaves this week. Then we’ve got (sorry, my Survivor nerd side is kicking in here):

• Crystal/Kenny/Susie

• Matty/Sugar

• Bob/(Randy or Corinne)

So the final seven would be Matty’s last chance to really alter things by creating a 4-3 vote. The remnants of the Onion alliance could remind him that his strength could be a liability so late in the game. The fact that it’s the last chance might be also enough to sway Sugar, if she could be convinced that she’s really on the outs of the dominating alliance.

So if Crystal/Kenny/Susie is broken up, expect it to happen at the final seven, not the final eight. Since Matty seems relatively close to at least Kenny, this may only result in Susie being dumped, and then it’s bye-bye to the rest of the Onions. (Although, will Sugar’s idol ever come into play – and for that matter, Bob’s exquisitely crafted fake one?)

I’m probably wrong, of course (and I’m not spoiled either, really – there’s very few spoilers to speak of this season).

But a broken clock is right twice a day…

Monday, November 10, 2008

Amazing Race: The Bitchification of Kelly & Christy

Oooh, there's a title to grab your attention! With the elections finally over it seems I have time again for this lil' blog...

So, Kelly and Christy. They used to be pretty likeable. We felt a little sorry for them when Starr tried to get them U-Turned a few episodes back. (Although they looked a little silly for accusing Starr of also throwing one of their undergarments out a window, or some such thing.)

But something happened in the last couple weeks. Kelly and Christy became . . . mean. Last week, if I recall correctly, they made fun of Dallas -- a member of probably the most positively depicted team in the race -- for looking like "Teen Wolf." Then this week, they giggled over whether they'd rather make out with Dan or Andrew. Kelly picked redheaded Andrew, saying he was "different" in part because of his "big 'fro." Uh . . . OK?

It seems the team is suddenly acting like they are back in high school. And here's some other things they said or did last night that for various reasons made them look bad:

• Although this made them seem lame more than mean, Kelly and Christy were the only team that had any real problems finishing the paint-powder-attack Roadblock. They misread the directions, resulting in Kelly running around more than she had to as citizens threw water and paint at her as part of a holiday of some sort. This left Kelly to sob, "I can't do it, I'll seriously die." Whine, whine. But we did have one "mean" note: The scene also resulted in Christy saying, "the fact that someone celebrates this annually is just dreadful if you ask me."

• Dissatisfied with their cab driver, the team had let him go when they reached the paint-related roadblock. This was a bad move, since the challenge left both covered from head to two in watery paint, so other cabs in the area were disinclined to give them a ride. So Kelly and Christy ran from cab to cab, saying things like "You have to take us. It's an emergency!" After they finally found someone (and nicely apologized for being so messy), they said of the other taxi drivers, "they wouldn't make eye contact" and "they acted like we didn't exist." The two then made sure that bystanders knew they exist: "Let's scare people!" Kelly bizarrely says, and begins screaming and moaning out the back seat window as Christy laughs and wonders if she is high from paint fumes. Later on, while searching in vain at the Detour for numbers tied to power lines, the team becomes annoyed when their driver points out landmarks. "American McDonald's," he says, gesturing. Understandably, Kelly and Christy would rather he go faster. Still, their annoyed look is more what we remember.

• It seems every time The Amazing Race visits a poverty-stricken area, at least one contestant is bound to utter something inappropriate. They're so used to the cameras on them they forget to guard against this stuff. This time, critiques of the location Kelly and Christy were racing in included saying, "[This is] not a nice area" and "oh man, the stink" as they gagged in the back of their cab and make grimacing looks. Later, one comments, "There's so many people, I don't know how anyone lives here. It's quite miserable." Contrast this with, say, Tina bonding some with the people she was serving water to. The divorcees even managed to imply their ethnocentrism included electrical wiring: "The powerlines are all over everywhere," one complained as they searched for small numbered tags hidden amid lines hanging above a crowded city street. "It's not like normal American straight powerlines."

If only they'd agreed to work with Dan and Andrew. Not only would this have pretty much guaranteed they'd finish the task at the same time and have a cab ride and footrace to the mat, it also prevented them from possibly getting help from Ken and Tina, who nicely explained to "Dandrew" how to perform the Detour once they had completed it. (Ken and Tina also had the smartest move of the week: actually getting out of their taxi and physically moving things out of the way and clearing traffic so it could get them to their next destination)

Now to be fair, Kelly and Christy aren't the only ones who looked bad. Tina got quite upset at the locals for spraying her with green paint. And Terence made all sorts of bizarre noises as he tried to evacuate his nasal cavity of pink paint. Nick and Starr told a small lie to Toni and Dallas, but then teamed up with them on the horrid number-spotting challenge, only to outrace the mother-son team to the finish line. Which isn't necessarily negative so much as an example of their competitiveness.

But over the course of the episode (and to some degree last week) Kelly and Christy seemed to be depicted more and more negatively. What's the reasons for this? Here are the possibilities:

A. Kelly and Christy indeed suddenly became snarky over the course of the race, perhaps due to stress; additionally, they were the only team to critique the socioeconomic status of the area they were visiting, and the editing neutrally reflects this.

or

B. Other teams said "bad" things about the poverty and crowding of New Dehli, but these comments were not included in the broadcast; additionally, Kelly and Christy had always made the occasional personal-attack-type comments common to the high school cheerleading squad, but the editing had ignored that till now.

Which happened? Was the editing "honest" or did the show's powers that be choose to highlight negative aspects of Kelly and Christy's experiences and personalities, as if to prepare viewers for their elimination (and perhaps even cheer it on)?

No way to tell. But that's reality TV for you...