Belated Survivor Analysis: Chopped Onion

Well, Survivor editors, you got me. It sure looked like Marcus, Charlie and Corinne had this thing wrapped up. Oh, but for an ill-timed second tribal swap!

(Oh, and apologies to my eight readers for not posting about Survivor in so long...an election and multiple colds can do that to you...)

The pivotal moment of the last three episodes certainly was Marcus’ conversation with Crystal by the water after the second tribal reshuffling. Where Marcus went wrong, as Dalton Ross pointed out, was in telling Crystal he needed to vote against her buddy Kenny.

Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but the better move -- especially since he had a small personal connection with Crystal as a close friend of her cousin -- may have been to propose what Rob Cesternino did in The Amazon when faced with a wavering alliance member: Unite with the opposition and off the waffler.

Ah yes. Eleven seasons ago, six players were left in the jungle. We had…

• Rob, Butch and Matt on one side

• Heidi and eventual winner Jenna on the other

• And Christy in the middle.

Nominally, Christy was allied with Rob’s group (well, mainly Butch). And Rob needed her to break a Tribal Council tie. Meanwhile Jenna and Heidi were also wooing her. But Christy frustrated both sides by refusing to say who she’d vote for, declaring, “I’ve got the power!”

The result: A desperate Rob proposed to Jenna that they “make it easy on everyone” and get rid of Christy. Which they did.

Now, this wasn’t the same situation Marcus faced. Back in 2002, the best Jenna could have hoped for was a 3-3 tieif Christy voted with her and Heidi. But in Gabon, Crystal was part of a tribe of five people: her and Kenny on one side, Marcus and Bob on the other, with Susie in the middle, albeit nominally part of Marcus’s alliance.

What if Marcus, seeing Crystal recoil at offing Kenny, had offered to get rid of Susie instead? “Neither of us can trust her, so why go through all this drama?” he could have said. “Chances are this will be the last Tribal Council we’ll have to go to before the merge anyway -- and if there’s another one, well then we have a 2-2 deadlock and we’ll see what happens. But for now, there’s a 100% chance Kenny won’t be going home, vs. a 50-50 chance if we both went after Susie for her vote.”

The bad news: It’d have been risky. Crystal could have tattled to Susie (but then, Marcus could have just denied everything). The good news: If it paid off, Marcus’ alliance would still have a 5-4 advantage overall, with the one questionable member excised.

But again, hindsight is 20/20.

***

The question now – after the delicious booting of Ace shocking dispatching of Marcus and the inevitable Charlie ouster that followed (although Kenny sure picked on him for petty reasons) – is if Kenny and Crystal can keep this up. In particular, Kenny’s whole game the last few episodes has entailed lying about the people he wants gone. He lied to Sugar about Ace, and she bought it and voted him out. He lied to his alliance (and Sugar) about Charlie, and they bought it and voted him out (geez, why lie when you don’t have to – everyone hates Randy, go for the easy kill)! Will this catch up to him?

I’m not even sure if we’re supposed to root for or against this Kenny guy. For all Marcus’ purported arrogance, he sure was depicted pleasantly enough. His ego only flashed now and then. He was no John from Marquesas and that ill-fated alliance. Charlie was quiet but had a largely positive edit, and Bob thus far has too. Corinne and especially Randy, not so much, but that’s three Onions out of five that have been edited from neutral to positive. Kenny, meanwhile, described himself as a rodent, had trouble steering a boat, and outwardly lies to get his way. But he nonetheless does so in a charming way and has a somehow endearing nerdish quality.

I hesitate to predict anything given how I fell for the Onion inevitability (though I sure wasn’t the only one, and gosh, former champs Earl, Yul, and Tom sure seemed like the obvious winners from almost the start of their respective seasons, and arguably even Todd), but the previews for the next episode suggest that Randy and Corinne will try to get Matty to switch sides by telling him that Crystal/Kenny/Susie are the core alliance, and he and Sugar are on the outs.

Don’t bet on this working – yet. There’s still eight people left. A Crystal/Kenny/Susie tandem can’t call the shots until the final six (well five, but six, counting forcing a tie). And Sugar detests both Randy and Corinne. So I’d guess one of those two leaves this week. Then we’ve got (sorry, my Survivor nerd side is kicking in here):

• Crystal/Kenny/Susie

• Matty/Sugar

• Bob/(Randy or Corinne)

So the final seven would be Matty’s last chance to really alter things by creating a 4-3 vote. The remnants of the Onion alliance could remind him that his strength could be a liability so late in the game. The fact that it’s the last chance might be also enough to sway Sugar, if she could be convinced that she’s really on the outs of the dominating alliance.

So if Crystal/Kenny/Susie is broken up, expect it to happen at the final seven, not the final eight. Since Matty seems relatively close to at least Kenny, this may only result in Susie being dumped, and then it’s bye-bye to the rest of the Onions. (Although, will Sugar’s idol ever come into play – and for that matter, Bob’s exquisitely crafted fake one?)

I’m probably wrong, of course (and I’m not spoiled either, really – there’s very few spoilers to speak of this season).

But a broken clock is right twice a day…