Survivor Gabon: Bob's Idol and the Endgame

Now and then, Survivor serves up a classic episode. Last night's was certainly one of those: Bob offers Randy -- who has been angering others with ridiculous behavior -- a realistic-looking but fake hidden immunity idol. Randy plays it at Tribal Council and is embarrassed (and voted out) when Jeff Probst announces it is fake.

I've seen comments at SurvivorSucks wondering why Bob would embarrass Randy like this, seeing how it would cost him Randy's vote if Bob reached the final three -- as well as, most likely, the votes of Marcus and Charlie. Add Corinne's vote to that, assuming she's voted out soon, and there's a majority of the jury, right there. Therefore, Bob's actions may have well cost him the million bucks, should he somehow reach the final Tribal Council. The only way he could win is if the other three jury members all vote for him and Marcus, Charlie, Randy and Corrine split their votes 2-2 for the other two finalists.

But this was a case of short-term gain outweighing long-term pain: Better to finish third than seventh. Giving Randy his fake idol, and lying to Corinne about it too, doubtlessly won Bob major brownie points among the current powers. What did he have to lose? Heck, Bob was Matty's initial target this episode until Randy started acting over-the-top mean. Unless Corinne wins immunity next episode, he's almost certainly done enough to ensure he outlasts her in the game. And if Sugar tires of Ken's strategic dominance or wants him ousted, she's now obtained another ally.

The editing last night was an interesting mix. Besides Randy, who was outlandishly negative (purposely so), Corinne was somehow more sympathetic, and Sugar, who's had a mostly positive edit thus far was either hilariously brilliant or unnecessarily mean when it came to the "cookie argument" and her plan to trick Randy. Is she a hero or villain? In interviews, Charlie and Randy have both expressed distaste for Sugar. There's no way to tell for sure if that's how others in the game felt or a byproduct of her messing with their plan.

The preview for the next new episode was especially fascinating: It showed Bob explaining to a perturbed-looking Corinne that Marcus had in fact held onto the immunity idol hidden on the beach at the "fake merge" feast that he had ostensibly thrown into the ocean. "He told me where he hid it," Bob said (or something to that effect). There's some confusion as to what this portends. But I think he'll try to say a member of the Fang alliance left the fake idol on Exile Island for him to find after someone else found the real one. (This also explains why he voted for Susie instead of for Randy.) In which case, perhaps he makes a second fake idol and hides that one for Corinne to find, saying it's the one Marcus got at the fake merge. Beyond embarrassing Corinne to get more brownie points from Sugar, the only upside I can think of for Bob in doing this is that Corinne might not try as hard to win the immunity challenge if she already thinks she has an idol. But would she really fall for that? It seems unlikely. And admittedly this is a convoluted idea!



I'd say there's two ways this game can play out from here -- an "Occam's Razor" way and a "Hollywood" way. Occam's Razor is the well-known principal that all things being equal, the simplest solution is the best. In other words, the most realistic finish. The one that Survivor's editors will try to convince us isn't going to play out, but in fact does. Think of the many famous misdirections for the show's premiere season, when Mark Burnett and friends did all they could to convince viewers that the simplest resolution -- the Tagi alliance systematically eliminating hapless Pagong -- wouldn't happen. Of course, it did.

The "Occam's Razor" finish would look something like this (again, pure speculation, I'm not spoiled)

• Final Seven boot: Corinne. This seems inevitable at this point, unless she wins immunity.
• Final Six boot: Bob. Sure, he entertained the game's new elite, but he's still on the outs. Could go next if Corinne wins immunity.
• Final Five boot: Matty. Things are pretty cloudy starting here. Various videos online, and footage from the show, indicates all sorts of different final three alliances. But Crystal, Kenny and Sugar all seemed irked by Matty trying to push the tribe to vote out Bob last night. And he'd be the biggest Immunity threat left by that point.
• That leaves a final four of Sugar, Kenny, Crystal and Susie, and with the final immunity challenge and such a small (and even number of players) leaving open the chance of a Tribal Council tie, there's little to speculate about by then.


Now, the "Hollywood ending," or a sequence of events that is both rational and, for the audience, pleasurable. This involves an uprising against the powers that be and a "good" person winning in the end. It also has to make some sense -- for instance, it'd be absurd to suggest that Corinne will suddenly ally with Susie and Kenny to oust Crystal.

So, here's the most realistic "Hollywood" finish I can come up with:

• Final Seven boot: Still Corinne. Sorry, I just think it's gonna happen barring an immunity win. She is too closely tied to Randy. And I'm sure she'll (understandably) freak out after this latest Tribal Council.
• Final Six boot: Kenny. Sugar rewards Bob by helping to keep him around. She either pulls in Matty and then gives Bob her immunity idol, forcing a 3-3 tie that sends Kenny home when Bob's votes are thrown out. Or, more likely, she gets Susie and Matty to align with her and Bob and votes out Kenny. The victim here could as easily be Crystal, but ousting Kenny would be more shocking (to Kenny) and pleasurable (to the audience) since he's ostensibly in charge of things and may be on the verge of getting cocky.
• Final Five boot: Crystal. Easily dispatched after Kenny's downfall, unless she wins immunity.
• That leaves a final four of Sugar, Bob, Matty and Susie. Whichever one of Bob or Matty doesn't win immunity at that point would probably be a goner. If Sugar or Susie wins immunity, Bob may have a better chance of surviving by arguing that he can't win after having alienated four members of the seven-person jury.

So there you have it. It looks like the Thanksgiving night installment is a "recap episode," so it'll be a while before we see how this all wraps up.