Survivor Gabon: These Tangled Webs

After seventeen seasons, this show still can sure throw wild curveballs at its audience. Last night's unending machinations, confusing yet amusing "deal" between Kenny and Bob, alliance-jumping by Sugar, and swiftly shifting Tribal Council targets made for one of the more delicious and unpredictable episodes this season. Matty's doomed! No, wait, it's Bob! Er, Crystal?! I mean look at the shifts that occurred this episode:

• Kenny and Crystal go from trying to oust Matty, to tricking Bob into giving up his idol, and then back to trying to oust Matty

• Sugar goes from an alliance with Kenny and Crystal to one with Matty and, presumably, Bob and even Susie

• Bob goes from semi-aligning with Kenny and Crystal to semi-aligning with Sugar (and by extention Matty).

And on top of that, we have an immunity idol changing hands at Tribal Council -- but from Sugar to Matty, not from Bob to Kenny.

If Sugar (in her current state of mind -- remember, she's switched allegiances gosh who knows how many times, and seems to be playing based on her heart, not her head) has her way, we'll have a final three of her, Bob and Matty -- the "good guys." What a Hollywood ending, an alternate version of the one I tried to flesh out a few weeks back. But there's no telling how this plays out. Immunities and perceived jury votes will have a big say at the next two Tribal Councils.

That said, here's how I'd rate each remaining contestant's chances of winning should they make the final three. Note that there are no outright spoilers below, but there is speculation based on things that Marcus and company have said in recent interviews:

1. Bob. He's in the catbird's seat if he gets to the end. He'd have the votes of Marcus, Charlie and Corinne almost for sure, and that may be enough to win -- if not, he'd only need one more vote for an outright majority. That could come from Randy, who still might be mad at him -- but Randy has to vote for somebody, right?

2. Matty. Tough call between him and Ken for this spot. Ken has played a better game in terms of running the show and cooking up several ousters, even if it seems he did them on the spur of the moment and used lies to get them to happen (like telling everyone Charlie was the mastermind behind the Onion alliance). If the four Onion jury members (based on "Ponderosa" footage online) are still mad enough at Crystal to not even talk to her after she's voted out, that anger may rub off on her main man, Kenny, even if Corinne said last week after being voted out that she liked him. So I'd say Matty, although having less of a role in the strategic part of the game, also did less to offend most jury members than did Kenny.

3. Ken. See above. A final three including Matty, Ken, and one of the two remaining ladies would be quite the tossup.

4. Susie. It's another tough call between Susie and Sugar. Like with Matty and Kenny, I'm going to say that the person who's done less to offend the jury will get more votes this season. Between Susie and Sugar, that's Susie. The editing suggests she's done little lately other than flip on Marcus at that pivotal pre-merge Tribal Council. She'd be the least defined winner ever if she somehow came out on top.

5. Sugar. She's determined as many oustings as Kenny, and like him, she's led with her heart more than her head (or so it seems). She's been portrayed as a sweetheart, but post-boot interviews with jury members suggests few actually liked her on the set -- that she acted like a diva. She also helped off Charlie, and with Randy and Corinne also not being able to stand her, and her having just betrayed Crystal, it's hard to see how she wins.

So, how will this play out? Sugar and Susie will probably both reach the final three, simply because neither can likely win. And the man who joins them -- your guess is as good as mine as to who that will be -- will beat them for the million.